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Opinion: For the GOP and its candidates, Trump’s endorsement isn’t the most important thing

Opinion: For the GOP and its candidates, Trump's endorsement isn't the most important thing

If a Trump-backed candidate wins, it’s presented as a “big win” for the former President. That’s how many viewed J.D. Vance’s victory in the GOP Senate primary in Ohio.

If a Trump-backed candidate loses, on the other hand, it’s seen as a stinging rebuke.

But the results so far actually reveal a different story — and suggest it’s time to stop viewing Trump as a bellwether of all things about the GOP.

Trump’s endorsement certainly gave Vance’s then-flagging campaign a boost — as did millions in outside spending by Peter Thiel — but if you look past the reporting and the money, only 32% of Ohio Republicans voted for Vance. Or, looked at another way, 68% of Ohio Republicans were apparently unswayed by Trump’s endorsement.
And in North Carolina Tuesday night, Trump-endorsed, beleaguered Congressman Madison Cawthorn not only lost the primary, but gained just under 32% of the vote — as an incumbent. Indeed, 68% of Republicans in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District rejected a last-minute, doubling-down, “Let’s give Madison a second chance” plea from Trump.
Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, the Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz is locked in a still-too-close-to-call race with David McCormick, whom Trump attacked at a Pennsylvania rally earlier this month. The race seems likely headed to an automatic recount, but regardless of its outcome, the sum of Republicans who chose not to vote for Trump’s chosen candidate will tell a compelling story.

Whether they result in a win, a loss or a race that’s too close to call, the numbers for Vance, Cawthorn and Oz paint a strikingly similar picture, one that suggests two things: 1) the size of the Trump base among GOP primary voters is consistent, but small and 2) Trump’s endorsement, while helpful, is nowhere near being a golden ticket.

Indeed, the “Trump bump” that comes with an endorsement has never guaranteed any candidate to be the favorite. These three candidates are nowhere near 50% support among GOP primary voters. In in the…

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