Four ways the war in Ukraine might end – opinion – Ukraine news / The New Voice of Ukraine

For months, our foresight experts have been projecting how the war could break out and, once it did, how it could unfold next. In this latest installment, Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Jeffrey Cimmino revisit their March forecasts for four different scenarios.

In early March, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, we proposed four scenarios for how the war might unfold. At that time, we noted that several factors suggested it was turning in the West’s favor, including popular international support for Ukraine, Kyiv’s determination to fight, and newfound transatlantic solidarity.

Since then, Russia’s initial offensive has collapsed, transatlantic allies and partners have become bolder in their actions, and NATO appears poised to admit Finland and Sweden. 

Four months later, we find it important to revisit our thinking: Foresight is a strategic exercise that requires returning to the original evidence; the assumptions and scenarios should be modified in accordance with actual events.

If the scenarios are built on faulty assumptions, or if they are poorly calibrated to events on the ground, they will not be useful for policymakers seeking to develop coherent strategies.

So here, we reexamine our four original scenarios and suggest how we might amend them in light of new developments in Ukraine:

Scenario 1: Miracle on the Dnipro 

In this scenario, we forecast the possibility—seen as remote in early March—of an unexpectedly strong Ukrainian resistance forcing Russia to execute a swift withdrawal from Ukraine. This scenario now appears to be no miracle, as a Ukrainian battlefield victory is more likely today than it appeared in early March. 

July update: Strengthened by Western sanctions against Russia and the provision of increasingly lethal military equipment, Ukraine weathers Russia’s offensive in the east. With better equipment, higher troop morale, and superior leadership and tactics, Ukraine launches powerful counteroffensives (as they have already done around Kharkiv, where they have pushed back Russian forces to the border) and expels Moscow’s troops from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as…