Putin at the training ground in the Ryazan region, October 2022 (Photo:Сputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS)
Russia is likely to continue the war against Ukraine through conventional means well into 2023, hoping to go on the offensive again in spring, rather than escalating to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its new report on Oct. 30.
Analyzing the Russia’s vision of the prospects for the course of the war in the next six months, ISW said the Kremlin would likely attempt to wait out the current stage of the war, in which Ukraine has seized the initiative.
“Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied territories, gain new ground, and set conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine that he likely expects to occur this winter,” ISW experts said.
“Putin has likely not abandoned hopes of achieving his maximalist aims in Ukraine through conventional military means, which he is pursuing in parallel with efforts to break Ukraine’s will to fight and the West’s will to continue supporting Kyiv. Putin is unlikely to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, barring the sudden collapse of the Russian military, permitting Ukrainian forces to make uncontrolled advances throughout the theater,” ISW analysts said, noting that such a situation is “possible but unlikely.”
They also believe Putin is “extraordinarily unlikely to seek direct military conflict with NATO”, saying he would much rather continue to hint at the possibility of Russian tactical nuclear use and attacks on NATO as parts of his effort to break Western will to continue supporting Ukraine.
ISW analysts base this forecast on two assessments:
- First, that Putin is setting conditions to continue throwing poorly prepared Russian troops directly into the fighting in Ukraine for the foreseeable future rather than pausing operations to reconstitute effective military forces
- Second, that Putin’s theory of victory relies on using the harsh winter to break Europe’s will.
Russian force-generation efforts will occur over the course of several predictable time periods.
ISW analysts note that the “partial mobilization” of reservists has been declared complete. That declaration basically means that the Russian military will stop calling up reservists and instead focus on completing…
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