Ukraine Keeps Shipping Grain, Defying Russian Military Threat

Russia has said for weeks that it might pull out of the deal. Russian President

Vladimir Putin

said the deal was benefiting Western buyers at the expense of the developing world. Russian officials have also complained that Western promises to buy Russian agricultural products as part of the deal had fallen short. Over the weekend, Moscow said it had decided to pull out after attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea.

Grain traders and U.N. officials had feared that if Russia withdrew from the deal, ships would stop coming, worried they could be targeted by the Russian military. Late Monday, Moscow threatened to board ships that didn’t request permission from Russia before leaving Ukraine.

So far, though, those threats haven’t deterred shipowners. If voyages continue without interference from Russia, Moscow’s perceived leverage over global grain markets could wane. In the early days of the war, the West accused Russia of using food as a weapon by bottling up Ukrainian grain exports.

Grain prices rose Monday, the first day of trading after Russia suspended its participation in the deal. On Tuesday, they were modestly lower.

But Russia’s threats could still rattle shipowners, and their insurers, in the future. Some shipping companies have already expressed concern about whether insurers will offer protection. A withdrawal of insurance could stymie the trade.

So far, companies have been able to insure ships and cargo on the route, even if at higher rates. Ships running cargo in and out of Ukraine in recent days will likely already have prearranged coverage.