Exodus of incumbents brings change to state legislatures

More than one-quarter of state lawmakers whose seats are up for election across the U.S. are guaranteed to be gone from office next year — a statistic certain to grow when the votes are counted from the November general election.

A combination of retirements, term limits, redistricting changes and primary defeats — especially among Republicans facing conservative challengers — already has driven turnover in state capitols to its highest rate in more than a decade.

More incumbents will lose Tuesday, as voters decide nearly 6,300 state legislative races in 46 states.

“There are going to be a lot of new faces in legislative chambers across the country,” said Ben Williams, principal for the elections and redistricting program at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The changing composition of state legislatures could have significant implications for public policy. Though the federal government often garners more attention, state legislatures hold the power to ban or allow abortion, set rules for future elections, raise or reduce various taxes and determine what gets taught in public schools, among other things.

This election is the first since districts were redrawn to account for population shifts noted by the 2020 census. Post-redistricting elections often see an uptick in retirements and defeats as incumbents opt against running in new areas or get matched up against each other.

But this year’s turnover rate — already above 26% — is ahead of the pace from the last post-redistricting election in 2012 and more than one-quarter higher than the average over the past decade, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the election tracking organization Ballotpedia.

One reason is that a greater percentage of incumbents didn’t seek re-election this year. But that alone doesn’t explain it.

While the rate of Democratic primary losses declined slightly from 2012, the loss rate for Republican incumbents rose from 4.7% a decade ago to 6.2% this year. Many of those GOP lawmakers lost to challengers aligned with former President Donald Trump and portray themselves as more conservative on such issues as election integrity, transgender policies and school instruction.

Story continues

Heading into the general election, Republicans held majorities in both legislative chambers in 30 states compared with 17 for Democrats. Two states — Minnesota and Virginia — had split legislative majorities. Nebraska’s Legislature is officially nonpartisan.

When…