One overlooked story from the midterm elections is how Democratic governors in the bluest states underperformed Republican governors in what were once hotly contested states. One reason is that independents swung for incumbent Republican governors in the best-governed states and against Democratic ones in the worst.
Another is that voters unhappy with one-party progressive rule are increasingly voting with their feet by moving to states where leaders share their political values. This ideological sorting has been happening for some time but accelerated during the pandemic. Republicans in red-tinted states have benefited from this migration, and it might have protected some Democrats in blue ones too.
In states where Democrats enjoy enormous voter-registration advantages Democratic governors prevailed by smaller margins—5.8% in New York, 10.7% in Illinois and 13% in Connecticut—than Republican governors did in usually more competitive states such as New Hampshire (15.5%), Iowa (18.6%), Florida (19.4%) and Ohio (25.6%)
In Ohio, registered Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans, according to an October 2021 secretary of state report. Yet Gov.
Mike DeWine
trounced his opponent. Republicans in Iowa have a 4.7-point voter-registration advantage, which pales in comparison to Gov.
Kim Reynolds’s
margin. In Florida, nearly 300,000 more Republicans are registered to vote than Democrats, yet Gov. Ron DeSantis won by five times as many votes.
By contrast, New York Gov.
Kathy Hochul
defeated Rep.
Lee Zeldin
by a mere 326,000 votes even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in her state by some 3.6 million. Connecticut Gov.
Ned Lamont
won re-election by only some 164,000 votes—less than half of Democrats’ 350,000 voter-registration advantage.
Independent voters largely backed Republican incumbents in states where they have benefited from conservative policies such as low taxes, education choice and fewer Covid restrictions. Mr. DeSantis lost independents by 10 points in 2018. This year he won them by 8. Mr. DeSantis’s support for keeping schools and businesses open was no doubt one reason.
But independents also backed Republican challengers in states where they have suffered under progressive policies, including high taxes,…
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