US overdose deaths may be peaking, but experts are wary

NEW YORK — Have U.S. drug overdose deaths stopped rising? Preliminary government data suggests they may have, but many experts are urging caution, noting that past plateaus didn’t last.

U.S. overdose death rates began steadily climbing in the 1990s driven by opioid painkillers, followed by waves of deaths led by other opioids like heroin and — most recently — illicit fentanyl. Last year, more than 107,000 Americans died of drug overdoses — the highest tally in U.S. history.

On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released provisional data on what happened through the first six months of this year. The news appears to be hopeful.

Provisional data indicates U.S. overdose deaths fell three months in a row. The CDC estimated there were about 107,600 overdose deaths for the 12-month period between July 2021 and June 2022. That’s 40 fewer than in the 2021 calendar year.

“Today’s data continue to show a hopeful trend of a decrease in overdose deaths,” but more prevention and treatment work is needed, Dr. Rahul Gupta, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, said in a statement Wednesday.

Indeed, the decline is uneven. Only eight states reported fewer overdose deaths, while all the others showed continued increases. And only four states — Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia — reported sizable overdose death decreases of 100 or more, compared with the previous July-to-June period.

Those few states, which have had some of the nation’s the highest overdose death rates, appear to be at the root of the national improvement this year, said Brandon Marshall, a Brown University public health researcher who tracks overdose trends.

Officials in the four states said there was no single explanation, but they believe recent efforts may be paying off. They cite social media and health education campaigns to warn the public about the dangers of drug use, expanded addiction treatment and wider distribution of the overdose-reversing medication naloxone.

“I’m so proud of everything going on in this state,” said Robin Rickard, executive director of Maryland’s Opioid Operational Command Center. She singled out naloxone access, saying: “I think that has had a huge, huge impact on our fatality numbers, quite frankly.”

Rickard and other state and federal officials are not declaring victory, however. Gupta called for more federal funding to bolster prevention and treatment.

Some researchers are doubtful…