Opinion: A divided government will be disastrous for the US economy

Editor’s Note: Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

The midterm election results are still rolling in, but Republicans have won control of the US House of Representatives, ensuring that we will have a divided government. If history is a guide, this means the next two years of economic policy will be frustrating, punctuated by legislative logjams and fiscal brinkmanship. And if the economy suffers a recession, as is widely anticipated, lawmakers won’t step up to cushion the downturn.

This will be a big change from the past two years when the Biden administration worked with a Democrat-controlled Congress. The Senate was evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, though, so both Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote and the use of arcane budget rules were often necessary to get economic legislation across the finish line. It wasn’t easy, but a lot got done.

The massive American Rescue Plan passed shortly after Biden took office, with only Democratic votes. The government-support package helped the economy navigate the fallout from the pandemic.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act became law late last year, this time with some Republican support, providing investments in roads, bridges broadband and the electric grid. The CHIPS and Science Act also passed with bipartisan support, shoring up semiconductor manufacturing here at home.

The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, which had no Republican support, addresses the long-term problem of high prescription drug costs and, most significantly, climate change.

While the past two years have been a legislative whirlwind for economic policy, the next two will likely be anything but. A Republican-controlled House looks set to follow the playbook of the Republican Congress under former President Barack Obama. That is, it appears ready to focus on the government’s large budget deficits – and use the threat of government shutdowns and a breach of the government’s debt limit in efforts to force the Biden administration to cut government spending.

Indeed, House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy recently told CNN that, even though Republicans were willing to raise the debt limit during…