Major upset or ‘business as usual’? What to expect in Monday’s Mississauga byelection

At first glance, Monday’s federal byelection in a coveted Greater Toronto Area riding might seem like a nail-biter.

It’s the first contest under the Conservative leadership of Pierre Poilievre, in an area of the country crucial to his party’s chances of success in future federal elections.

And the contest, in a district the Tories won when Stephen Harper earned a majority mandate, comes seven years into the tenure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government is on its second minority stint in Parliament.

But the Liberals recruited a well-known former Ontario cabinet minister as their candidate for Mississauga-Lakeshore, and Poilievre has been scarcely visible as parties test their ground game a year after the last general election.

“The Liberals should be able to win,” said Philippe Fournier, the creator of 338Canada, a statistical model of electoral projections based on polling, demographics and elections history.

Still, he warned that byelection results are not always meaningful in the grand scheme.

“If the Conservatives pull it out, it’s a big story. If the Liberals win by five or six points, it’s just business as usual,” he said.

Fournier said Conservatives will need to learn how to win again in the regions outside of Toronto if Poilievre wants a kick at the can as prime minister.

“When you look at the riding map, the Conservatives have maxed out in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta. They could win maybe a handful more in Atlantic provinces, maybe two, three more in Quebec, maybe two, three more in B.C.,” he said.

“That doesn’t give you victory. They have to win more in Ontario. Where are the potential gains for the Conservatives? It’s into the Mississaugas and the Scarboroughs.”