Why Zelenskyy’s surprise U.S. trip comes at a crucial moment in Putin’s war

Senior Ukrainian leaders told Western media outlets in a series of interviews over the past week that they are preparing for a new onslaught after weeks of a battlefield stalemate in which Russia has bombarded civilian infrastructure and left parts of the country without power for long periods.

However, analysts say Belarus’ joining the war is unlikely, and they are split on whether Ukraine’s latest warning of an impending Russian offensive is plausible or whether it could be part of a broader messaging strategy.

Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told The Guardian last Thursday that new evidence had emerged showing Russia was preparing an offensive using half of its 300,000 newly mobilized troops.

“The [draftees] do a minimum of three months to prepare. It means they are trying to start the next wave of the offensive probably in February, like last year. That’s their plan,” he said.

Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, told The Economist the same day: “The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. … I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.”

Zelenskyy’s visit would appear to fit in with the urgency of those warnings, Ledwidge said.

“Last week the military leadership of Ukraine asked for a significant uptick in the quantity of weaponry, which only the U.S. can supply. This week we have the political effort to try and clear the way for that,” he said.

In a call with reporters Tuesday night, a senior U.S. administration official described the visit as a chance to provide an “important injection of momentum and sustenance” to support for Ukraine.

Putin has spoken with rare candor about his military’s struggles in recent weeks, with the campaign stalled after having been dealt severe blows by Kyiv’s recent counteroffensives. He said Tuesday that the situation was “extremely difficult” in the four regions of Ukraine he claimed to have annexed this year.

Asked whether anything positive could come from Zelenskyy’s trip to Washington, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied simply: “No.”

Rather than plan a decisive new effort to change the shape of the war, Russia and Belarus were more likely getting together to discuss economic cooperation, said Samuel Ramani, an expert in politics and international relations at the University of Oxford.

“I think it’s much more likely the war is going to drag on in a stalemate with limited escalation,” he said.

Belarus was used as a staging point for…