The virus that established a home in the rest of humanity is now spreading in China, as had to happen sooner or later. The medical disaster that appears to be unfolding on the mainland was entirely predictable: China has 10 cities bigger than New York with perhaps a fifth the critical-care capacity. The treatment shortage is even worse in lesser cities and rural areas. And unlike youthful India, which underwent a similar ordeal two years ago, China’s population is more like a Western society’s in age and related vulnerability to severe Covid.
The Communist Party government can rightly be criticized for not beefing up its health capacity, for not making better use of vaccines. One thing not to worry about is the suggestion that, because the virus is now rampant in China as everywhere else, it’s suddenly likely to sprout a dangerous mutation.
Anything is possible with evolution but SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating and recirculating among 6.5 billion non-Chinese for three years. We, not the Chinese, are the reason the virus has evolved vaccine- and immunity-ducking traits, causing it to spread more easily but perhaps also to produce milder disease.
One good result has come from China’s unwillingness to import Western mRNA vaccines. As 1.4 billion more people become part of the virus’s habitat, they won’t be a force driving it to greater mRNA resistance. In fact, the trajectory of the virus is likely to be comparatively benign now that it has made a home among us. Worry about other viruses that haven’t made the jump yet.
Nonetheless the mutation warning has lately leapt from expert lips, for reasons best understood by the ancient Greeks, who pioneered the ritual lamentation, spoken to make sure the hearer knows the speaker very much disapproves of some ordeal that can’t be avoided. We saw this during our own Covid trial, prominent people trying to insulate their “brands” from the Covid moment by issuing exaggerated statements of blame and despair as well as unrealistic calls to action, many of them cataloged in this column.
Amid China’s dark hour, an eye-rolling moment was a recent government decision to cut the quarantine for international arrivals from seven days to five. A few days later China recognized the absurdity of this move, and eliminated quarantine altogether.
In the U.S. policy has gone in the…
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