Prigozhin admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are underestimated in Russia (on the photo are servicemen of the 22nd separate mechanized brigade) (Photo:Operational Command “South”)
The Russian military is changing tactics due to missile shortages, while the Ukrainian army is conducting raids across the Dnipro in southern Ukraine, U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War or ISW wrote in their March 23 assessment.
Meanwhile, the latest statements by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of Russia’s Wagner mercenary company, is contradicting Russian propaganda about the war, the ISW wrote.
Russian forces may be shifting their missile strike tactics to focus on Ukrainian military facilities as overall Russian missile strikes decrease, indicating the depletion of Russia’s stocks of high-precision missiles.
Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence or HUR representative Vadym Skibitskyi has stated that during the winter, the Kremlin failed to destroy the Ukrainian energy system, ISW reported.
“Therefore, the Russians will now somewhat redirect the directions of strikes,” Skibitskyi said.
“It could be both military facilities and concentrations of troops, as well as the logistics system of our (military) groups,” he said. HUR estimates that Russia’s current high-precision weapon stockpile is equivalent to only 15% of what it was on Feb. 24, 2022.
ISW underscored the following facts from HUR:
- Russia’s higher-end Kalibr, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles comprise less than 10 percent of Russia’s total remaining stocks.
- Russian forces cannot conduct missile attacks more than twice a month – due to the growing need to conserve missiles.
- Russia’s defense industrial base can produce only produce 20 to 30 Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles per month, and even fewer Iskander ballistic missiles.
This data is consistent with previous ISW estimates that Russian forces are depleting their missile arsenal and this may limit the frequency and intensity of Russian missile strikes.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to conduct raids over the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, striking Russian positions on the east (left) bank of the river. ISW draws attention to geolocation-verified combat footage published on March 20 showing the occupiers attempting to strike Ukrainian forces operating in the southeast of Great Potemkin Island near Kherson. And on March 23, a geolocated video of fighting shows Ukrainian drones striking…
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