While some Albertans have already decided who they are supporting in the provincial election, it appears the vote will come down to who can win over more people in Calgary.
A poll for Global News conducted by market research company Ipsos in the past few days shows that overall, the United Conservative Party has a four-point lead over the Alberta NDP among decided and leaning Alberta voters in the lead-up to May 29 election day.
“A slight lead for the UCP at this point, but everything we see makes perfect sense for what you would expect,” said Kyle Braid, senior vice president of public affairs at Ipsos.
“We have an actual competitive election in Alberta.”
Political analyst Jason Ribeiro said a small lead for the UCP does not surprise him, adding Danielle Smith has done a lot of work to make herself more palatable to the voters since becoming leader of the party in October 2022.
“This is very different than those first few weeks where we saw her put her foot in her mouth a number of times, incoherent policies. Now, they’ve been very clearly gearing up for an election,” Ribeiro said.
“It does highlight how close this election is going to be, despite the rhetoric for the last several months about change, about the incompetence of the current government. The NDP still have some work to do,” he said.
While there are multiple parties registered with Elections Alberta, only the United Conservative Party and Alberta NDP realistically have a chance to form the next government.
The UCP is doing best with men, older Albertans and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton, the poll found.
The NDP is doing best with women, younger voters and Edmonton voters.
The two parties share the support of Albertans 35 to 54 years old: 47 per cent for the UCP versus 46 per cent for the NDP.
Ribeiro said he isn’t surprised to find Albertans are at odds.
“We’re a highly divided province at this point. We’re divided around geographical lines, ideological lines.”
Calgary the true Battle of Alberta contender
As has been the case in past elections, the NDP is maintaining support in the province’s capital…
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