Russia to keep launching large-scale attacks on Ukraine – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have stated that Russia will continue to launch large-scale attacks on Ukraine, as it did on 29 December 2023.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces carried out the largest series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine on the morning of 29 December since the start of the full-scale invasion.

The ISW report says that the series of attacks carried out by Russian forces on 29 December appears to be the culmination of several months of Russian experimentation with various combinations of drones and missiles, as well as attempts to test Ukraine’s air defence systems.

ISW analysts pointed out that over the past few months, Russian forces have conducted a series of missile and drone strikes of varying scale, using various combinations of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

According to the ISW’s 21 October assessment, Russian forces were likely to diversify the mix of missiles, glider bombs and drones used in strike sequences to find weaknesses in Ukrainian air defences and optimise a strike package similar to the one launched by Russian forces on 29 December.

The Russians may have deliberately accumulated a variety of missiles during the autumn and early winter of 2023 to create a more powerful strike sequence and apply lessons learned from recent reconnaissance and surveillance missions, namely the use of Shahed attack drones to bypass Ukraine’s air defence systems and the use of missiles to inflict maximum damage on intended targets.

The ISW emphasised that Russia will continue to conduct large-scale attacks against Ukraine in an attempt to undermine its morale and ability to sustain its military efforts against Russia.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 December: 

• Russian forces conducted the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion on the morning of 29 December.

• The strike package that Russian forces launched on 29 December appears to be a culmination of several months of Russian experimentation with various drone and missile combinations and efforts to test Ukrainian air defences.

• Russia will continue to conduct strikes against Ukraine at scale in an effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort against Russia.

• Current Russian missile and drone reserves and production rates likely do not allow Russian forces to conduct regular large-scale missile strikes, but likely do allow for more consistent…