Carbon pollution is down in the US, but not fast enough to meet Biden’s 2030 goal, new report says

WASHINGTON — Climate-altering pollution from greenhouse gases declined by nearly 2% in the United States in 2023, even as the economy expanded at a faster clip, a new report finds.

The decline, while “a step in the right direction,” is far below the rate needed to meet President Joe Biden’s pledge to cut U.S. emissions in half by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, said a report Wednesday from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm.

“Absent other changes,″ the U.S. is on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by about 40% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade, said Ben King, associate director at Rhodium and lead author of the study.

The report said U.S. carbon emissions declined by 1.9% last year. Emissions are down 17.2% from 2005.

To reach Biden’s goal, emissions would have to decline at a rate more than triple the 2023 figure and be sustained at that level every year until 2030, he said.

Increased economic activity, including more energy production and greater use of cars, trucks and airplanes, can be associated with higher pollution, although there is not always a direct correlation. The U.S. economy grew by a projected 2.4% in 2023, according to the Conference Board, a business research group.

Last year’s relatively mild winter and continued declines in power generation from coal-fired plants drove down emissions in the U.S. power and buildings sectors, the report said.

At the same time, transportation sector emissions rose, led by a continued rebound in airplane travel and increased gasoline consumption as road traffic returns to pre-pandemic levels, the report said. Higher domestic oil and gas production also led to a small increase in industrial emissions.

While carbon emissions declined overall, “some ominous signs also began to appear in 2023,″ the report said. Natural gas generation grew more than twice as fast as renewables in 2023, compared to 2022. And while solar installations were on track for another record year, installations of wind turbines were down compared to 2022 and 2021, the report said.

Rising construction and financing costs, along with supply-chain constraints and other issues, have cast doubt on wind power’s once-robust growth. Two large offshore wind projects were canceled late last year, jeopardizing the Biden administration’s goal to power 10 million homes from huge ocean-based turbines by the end of the decade.

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