System in Gulf to become Tropical Storm Alberto today, forecasters say

Potential Tropical Cyclone One brewing in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday and has prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a tropical storm warning for parts of Texas and coastal Mexico.

If the disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm — the first of the season — it will be named Alberto. Forecasters said it won’t affect Florida.

Meanwhile, a disturbance in the Atlantic has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days and has a trajectory that will affect North Florida. The system is likely to bring rain to North Florida. Forecasters said South Florida will have a wet week regardless of where the Atlantic disturbance travels.

As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, the Gulf storm was 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, moving west-northwest at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Forecasters are concerned about rainfall amounts, particularly in areas north of the center of the storm.

It is expected to strengthen and make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday as a tropical storm in northeastern Mexico, with tropical storm force winds, and significant rainfall, extending into the U.S.

The NHC has expanded the tropical storm warning north, to San Luis Pass near Houston.

The warnings reach south to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. The government of Mexico also has issued a tropical storm warning for the northeastern coast of Mexico, south to Puerto de Altamira.

The hurricane center said the disturbance is “quite large” and has tropical-storm-force winds extending outward, up to 415 miles to the northeast of the center, toward South Texas.

The system is expected to continue making its turn to the west Tuesday night, and will reach the Gulf coast of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Forecasters urged people to not focus solely on the storm’s forecast track.

“The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico,” the hurricane center said.

Rainfall could be significant and potentially dangerous, given the mountainous terrain in some of the region.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas are possible, with maximum totals of 15 inches. Flash flooding and mudslides are potential hazards.

Storm surge also is a concern, particularly along the flatter areas of the Texas coast. Galveston Bay could see 2 to 4 feet of surge.

Separate from the potential tropical storm,…