US Politics

How Trump, or Kamala, could win, as all sides zero in on the debate

Biden to reporters at White House

No one knows who’s going to win this election.

The polls are so tight in the top battleground states, with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris leading by a point or two – a statistical tie – that a small number of voters or even the weather could make the difference.

There is a sense that Kamala’s crusade has stalled. She got no bump from the Democratic convention, perhaps because her joy-filled, vibes-based campaign had already soared during her first month as the nominee.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s approval rating has jumped to 48 percent, the highest of his presidency. Some pundits are crediting an improvement in the economy, but that’s not it. It’s because the president is largely out of the line of fire now that he’s stepped aside. 

TRUMP, KAMALA AIMING FOR THE MIDDLE WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SUCCESS

So the media have begun beating the drums for next Tuesday’s ABC debate, which may be the only such encounter between the two. If Trump can be disciplined and saddle Harris with the unpopular Biden record, he’ll win. If Harris can hold her own against a former president and deflect his attacks, she will have closed the stature gap.

And of course the airwaves will be flooded with partisans saying their candidate annihilated the other candidate.

In an interesting thought experiment, the New York Times had two columnists – both anti-Trump conservatives – write opposing pieces looking back on a Trump or Harris victory.

President Biden’s approval ratings have surged since his unceremonious whisking from the limelight. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

David Brooks, who is friendly with Biden, said the Trump camp “had one job: to define Kamala Harris as an elite San Francisco liberal before she could define herself as a middle-class moderate. The Trump campaign did next to nothing. All they needed was to play the 2019 clips of Harris sounding like a wokester cliché, but they couldn’t even come up with an argument…

“This mistake could have been fatal for the Republicans, because Trump is the 46 percent man. That’s roughly the share of the popular vote he won in 2016 and 2020. He was never going to ride a majority wave to victory in 2024, so it would have been helpful to take his…

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