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Not only has Doncic dominated this matchup against the Suns over the past three seasons, but he has a distinct matchup advantage over the Suns and the way they play defense.
So far this season, the Suns have allowed the most pull up field-goal attempts (FGA) in the league, and the most pull up 3-point attempts (3PA) as well.
Allowing a bunch of pull-up FGAs is a death sentence going up against someone with the skill set of Doncic, who has scored the second-most points via pull-ups in the NBA this year.
Luka Doncic over 30.5 points (-120): 1 Unit
Fred VanVleet u14.5 Points (-115) DraftKings
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
This Oklahoma City defense is a terrible matchup for VanVleet, which is why we are taking the under on his points prop.
In terms of play type, VanVleet scores over 50 percent of his points as the pick-and-roll (PnR) ball handler, and the spot on the floor where he scores the most is above-the-break 3-point range (46 percent of his points).
Unfortunately for VanVleet, the Thunder are well-equipped to limit points in both of these areas.
They have allowed the fewest points per game this year to PnR ball handlers, while also allowing the fewest made above-the-break 3-pointers in the NBA.
These two are related, but when Fred VanVleet scores it is normally from pulling up from the above-the-break while running the PnR. The Thunder allow both the fewest made and attempted pull-up 3-pointers as well.
They are essentially the polar opposite defense of the Suns (detailed above), making this a brutal matchup for VanVleet’s points prop.
Fred VanVleet under 14.5 points (-115): 1 Unit
Jalen Brunson 30+ Points (+115) DraftKings
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is another system play here: point guard points props over against the Bucks for PGs who are adept at running PnRs and who can pull up, either from 3-point range or the mid-range.
While Brunson has only scored 30 points once this year, this is a great matchup for him against Milwaukee.
On the year, the Bucks have allowed the seventh-most points to PGs, but that does not quite tell the whole story.
They also allow the fifth-most pull-up 3PA, the fourth-most above-the-break 3PA, the seventh-most midrange…
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