Canada’s population could reach 80M in 50 years, despite immigration cut: report

Canada’s population will grow over the years regardless of the federal government’s recent decision to slash immigration rates, a new report shows.

Statistics Canada released new projection figures Tuesday that factor in Ottawa’s October announcement that it would be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted to the country by 21 per cent in 2025.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the time the goal was to pause population growth over the next two years to ease pressures the economy has been facing, such as in housing and infrastructure.

A “substantial reduction” in the number of permanent residents, as well as a decrease in non-permanent residents, would result in much lower population growth than that recorded in 2022 and 2023, Statistics Canada said.

The population would even decrease slightly from 2025 to 2026, but in all three of its scenarios released Tuesday, Statistics Canada said migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth over the next 50 years.

“According to the projection scenarios, the Canadian population, estimated at 40.3 million in 2024, would continue to grow in the coming decades to reach between 45.2 million (low-growth scenario) and 80.8 million (high-growth scenario) by 2074,” the agency said.

“According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would reach 59.3 million in 2074.”

The report also offered projections for how each province and territory’s population would change from now to 2049. Aside from the changes in immigration policy, Statistics Canada said it used fertility, mortality and international and interprovincial migration rates to determine its projections.

It said all of its scenarios show an increase in the demographic weight of Alberta, while some show a decrease in Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec and the Northwest Territories from 2024 to 2049. Elsewhere, results vary, mainly depending on interprovincial migration assumptions.

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For example, Statistics Canada said the demographic weight of Atlantic provinces, other than Newfoundland, could increase from 2024 to 2049 if recent trends continue.

Newfoundland…