Canada is vowing to fight back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs that went into effect Tuesday, and potash could become a potent weapon in the growing trade war — but economists are urging caution.
Potash is a key ingredient in fertilizer, and roughly 85 per cent of the supply used by American farmers comes from Canada — particularly Saskatchewan, where potash is a major export market.
U.S. farming groups and even some Republicans aligned with Trump have called for potash to be exempted from the blanket tariffs out of concern for the agricultural industry.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford told reporters Tuesday that Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe should consider no longer selling potash, uranium and oil to the United States and instead find different markets.
“We need to make sure America feels the pain,” Ford said. “Without potash down there, (the U.S.) doesn’t have a farming system.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, while announcing a first round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, said Canada would also look at non-tariff measures if necessary but did not answer directly when asked whether Ottawa might curb exports of potash or crude oil.
Moe has previously pushed back on the idea of restricting Canadian material exports to the U.S., and that Canada’s countermeasures should not disproportionately hurt any one province.
He said in a statement Tuesday that his cabinet would meet Wednesday to “consider all options” to respond to the U.S. tariffs, and reiterated calls for reduced interprovincial trade barriers and the promotion of pipelines and other infrastructure.
“American farmers need Canadian fuel and fertilizer to grow their crops,” Moe said. “Trump’s tariffs will drive up the cost of oil, potash and uranium and that will drive up the cost of groceries for every American family.”
Even with a decline in potash prices in 2023, Saskatchewan exported over $11.5 billion worth of potash that year. Nearly all of it goes to other countries, representing a full third of global production. The next largest producers, Russia and Belarus, make up another third combined, followed distantly by China.
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