First signs of tariffs’ impact on inflation could appear in Wednesday’s consumer prices report

WASHINGTON — U.S. inflation likely picked up a bit last month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs start to bite, but lower prices for gas and possibly for air fares and used cars may limit the overall increase.

The government’s inflation report, to be released Wednesday, is forecast to show that consumer prices rose 2.5% in May compared with a year ago, according to economists surveyed by data provider FactSet. That would be the first increase in four months and up from 2.3% in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices are projected to have risen 2.9% in May from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in April.

Trump’s tariffs are expected to contribute to the uptick by raising the cost of some imports, including clothes, furniture, appliances, and possibly new cars. Many retailers and some consumer products companies have said they have plans to raise prices or have already done so to cover the cost of the import duties.

On a monthly basis, prices are expected to have moved up 0.2% from April to May, while core prices are forecast to have increased 0.3%. At that pace, core prices would rise much faster than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Economists and the inflation-fighters at the Fed focus on core inflation because it often provides a better sense of where inflation is headed.

Inflation has cooled in the past year and, excluding the impact of tariffs, economists say it would be on track to return to the Fed’s target, which would allow the central bank to cut its key interest rates. Yet core prices have been more stubborn and were stuck between 3.2% and 3.4% for nearly a year until February, when they started to decline a bit.

Last week, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the inflation data, said it is reducing the amount of data it collects for each inflation report. Economists have expressed concern about the cutback, and while it isn’t clear how sharp the reduction is, most analysts say it is likely to have a minor impact. Still, any reduction in data collection could make the figures more volatile.

Nearly all economists expect Trump’s duties will make many things more expensive in the second half of this year, including cars and groceries, though by how much is still uncertain. Trump has slapped 30% tariffs on all imports from China, plus a 10% baseline tariff on imported goods from every other country, and 50% import taxes on steel and aluminum.

Given the potential for higher prices in the…