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As Syria ceasefire unravels, who stands to gain from rising regional chaos?

Israel hits Syrian Defense Ministry

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Israel’s military strikes in Syria this week — launched in response to atrocities against the Druze minority — represent a strategic turning point in a deeper power struggle that now entangles Iran, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., according to regional analysts.

Just days ago, speculation swirled about a potential normalization agreement between Israel and Syria — a breakthrough quietly brokered by U.S. officials, but that fragile prospect has been swiftly overtaken by violence, as Israeli airstrikes this week struck near Damascus.

A ceasefire agreement between Druze factions and the Syrian government, announced July 16, was meant to calm days of deadly clashes, but it remains tenuous and largely unenforced, with sporadic fighting continuing and tensions running high.

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Members of the media photograph the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike on Syria’s defense ministry headquarters on July 16, 2025 in Damascus, Syria. (Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images)

“For the Druze in Israel, what’s happening in southern Syria feels like October 7 all over again,” said Avner Golov, vice president of the Israeli think tank Mind Israel. “Israel can no longer treat Syria as just a neighboring crisis. It’s now a domestic one.”

In a rare scene, Israeli Druze citizens crossed the border into Syria to support their embattled relatives — prompting a stern warning from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“My Druze brothers, citizens of Israel… Do not cross the border,” Netanyahu said. “You are putting your lives at risk — you could be killed, you could be kidnapped — and you are harming the IDF’s efforts. Let the IDF do its job.”

Israeli Druze in the Golan Heights mass along the Syrian border on July 16, 2025. Many breached the border in a bid to help their Syrian brethren, who have been locked in days of ethnic violence against Bedouins and the Syrian army.

Israeli Druze in the Golan Heights mass along the Syrian border on July 16, 2025. Many breached the border in a bid to help their Syrian brethren, who have been locked in days of ethnic violence against Bedouins and the Syrian army. (Eitan Elhadez-Barak/TPS-IL)

In his first televised address since the Israeli strikes, Syrian transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa framed the Israeli intervention as a destabilizing act.

“Government forces deployed to Suweida succeeded in…

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