What handing Donbas to Putin would mean for Ukraine

Days before meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Donald Trump referred to what he called “land swaps” as a condition for peace.

For Ukrainians, it was a confusing turn of phrase. What land was to be swapped? Was Ukraine to be offered part of Russia, in exchange for the land Russia had taken by force?

As Volodymyr Zelensky prepares to travel to Washington on Monday to meet Trump, there is likely no “swap” element to the US president’s thinking.

Instead, he is reportedly planning to press Zelensky to surrender the entirety of the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in return for Russia freezing the rest of the front line – a proposal put forward by Putin in Alaska.

Luhansk is already almost entirely under Russian control. But Ukraine is estimated to have held onto about 30% of Donetsk, including several key cities and fortifications, at a cost of tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives.

Both regions – known together as Donbas – are rich in minerals and industry. To surrender them to Russia now would be a “tragedy”, said the Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak.

“This is Ukrainian territory,” Mr Hrytsak said. “And the people of these regions – particularly the miners – played a huge role in the strengthening of the Ukrainian identity.”

The region had also produced “famous politicians, poets and dissidents”, he said. “And now refugees who will not be able to return home if it becomes Russian.”

At least 1.5 million Ukrainians have fled the Donbas since Russian aggression began in 2014. More than three million are estimated to be living under Russian occupation. A further 300,000 are estimated to be in the parts where Ukraine still has control.

In areas closest to the front line, life is already a dangerous struggle. Andriy Borylo, a 55-year-old military chaplain in the badly hit city of Sloviansk, said in a phone interview that shells had landed next to his house over the weekend.

“It is a very difficult situation here,” he said. “There is a feeling of resignation and abandonment. I don’t know how much we have the strength to endure. Someone has to protect us. But who?”

Mr Borylo had been following the news from Alaska, he said. “I put this on Trump, not Zelensky. But they are taking everything from me, and it is a betrayal.”

Zelensky has consistently said Ukraine would not hand over the Donbas in…