Recent geopolitical developments – from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine to US President Donald Trump’s antagonism toward NATO – are fueling support for EU accession in Greenland, Iceland, and Norway.
While northern enlargement would not happen quickly, EU leaders should start laying the groundwork for it.
“There are 12 countries on the waiting list to become members of the European Union,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyensaid in April.
Commission staff quickly reached out to her cabinet with a correction: there are only ten EU candidate countries, they noted, including Kosovo.
But von der Leyen’s team responded that there was no mistake; Iceland and Norway are on her list. In fact, the accession of northern European countries to the EU is looking increasingly attractive to both sides.
Risk reassessment
The idea of northern EU enlargement is hardly radical. Northern European countries are already deeply integrated with the EU, through the European Economic Area and Schengen.
But so far, they have eschewed membership in the Union. While Iceland opened accession negotiations in 2010, it suspended the process five years later. Norway has held two referenda on EU membership, but “no” won narrowly both times.
Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, was part of the European Communities until 1985, when it voted to withdraw following a dispute over fishing rights.
But recent geopolitical developments have fundamentally changed the logic of enlargement.
With Iceland, Norway, and especially Greenland facing intensifying security concerns, Article 42.7 of the Treaty on the EU – which establishes a commitment to mutual defense that is, in legal terms, stronger than NATO’s Article 5 – has gained considerable appeal. In today’s dog-eat-dog world, membership in a political union like the EU is not a shackle, but a shield.
Beyond national security, northern European countries have lately been feeling the effects of their exclusion from EU decision-making.
In January, Norway’s government collapsed over the implementation of EU energy policies, which it had no formal role in shaping.
More recently, Norway has been suffering the consequences of trade tensions between the EU and the United States – tensions that it cannot participate directly in resolving. This prompted a large Norwegian delegation to travel to Brussels to get the country’s voice heard.
So, a reassessment is underway. Iceland’s government is already
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