As Republicans look to flip House seats through redistricting in Texas and other red states, they have a pickup opportunity in what was once deep blue North Jersey, without having to redraw any lines.
In the state’s heavily Hispanic 9th Congressional District, the Democrat who was widely thought to be a shoo-in won by just five points last year, and President Donald Trump narrowly won the district after losing it the last two cycles. Yet, even amid talk of New Jersey becoming a purple state, just two Republican candidates have stepped forward to run in the district.
By contrast, in the one Republican-held seat Democrats have a realistic opportunity to pick up, in Central Jersey’s 7th District, Democrats are practically falling over each other to challenge two-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. Nine Democratic candidates — including several with a proven ability to raise funds and made-for-campaign bios like former Navy Black Hawk pilot, physician and climate scientist — have declared their candidacies with nearly a year to go before the primary.
“Democrats in New Jersey feel like the stakes are existential — literally existential — in these midterm elections,” said Hunterdon County Democratic Chair Tom Malinowski, a former 7th District representative whom Kean ousted in 2022. “I’m not sure Republicans feel quite as strongly.”
Trump’s remarkably narrow six-point loss in New Jersey last year was widely seen as a sign one of the bluest states in the nation was turning purple. And there are other indicators that Democratic dominance is fading in the state. Since the 2020 election, Republicans have shaved Democrats’ statewide voter registration advantage from more than 1 million to 864,825. And in the 2021 election, Republican Jack Ciattarelli — yet again the GOP nominee for governor this year — came within just three points of ousting Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
But presidential elections turn out more lower-propensity voters than midterms. And wealthier suburban districts like the 7th have had higher turnout than the more working-class 9th. Candidate recruitment and fundraising are some of the few tangible measures of where the political winds are blowing. And in New Jersey’s 2026 House races, Democrats are so far dominating on both fronts.
“Republicans are calling the 9th a swing district. They’re talking about a potential investment,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey…
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