BELO HORIZONTE, Brazil—Brazilians cast their ballots Sunday in what political scientists see as the country’s most consequential election in decades—a choice between President
Jair Bolsonaro
and his leftist rival,
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva,
that will have widespread implications for Latin America’s biggest economy and the Amazon rainforest.
Mr. da Silva, the standard-bearer for the Latin America left, and Brazil’s conservative incumbent are statistically tied in some recent polls. In May, Mr. da Silva had a lead of more than 20 percentage points over Mr. Bolsonaro, but is currently ahead by less than 1 percentage point, according to a recent poll. That is within the margin of error and a technical tie.
Mr. Bolsonaro got 43.2% of the first-round national vote on Oct. 2, almost 10 percentage points more than some polls had predicted but behind Mr. da Silva’s 48.4%.
Traditionally known for its iron-ore mines and cheese, Minas Gerais is also famous for being Brazil’s most accurate political barometer, offering clues about Sunday’s result at a time of widespread distrust of opinion polls.
Political scientists say the closely fought race will be decided in powerful southeastern states such as Minas Gerais.
Minas Gerais owes its importance to its size—bigger than California, it is Brazil’s second-most populous state—and to its social diversity, making it into a microcosm of the country’s electorate and a mirror of national trends.
Ever since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985, no one has won a presidential election in Brazil without garnering a majority of votes in Minas Gerais.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attends a march in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais state, Brazil.
Photo:
WASHINGTON ALVES/REUTERS
…
Click Here to Read the Full Original Article at WSJ.com: World News…