In the early days of January, at a U.S. military base in Germany, Ukrainian military planners huddled with their counterparts from the United States and Europe for a week-long war game session focused on how to defend against the Russian military as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its third year.
And 2024 could see Ukraine on the defence for most of it.
Last year, Ukraine’s counteroffensive yielded few battlefield gains. Defence experts say as Ukraine grapples with a shortage of ammunition and troops, it is in need of a reset and rebuild.
But that comes as support from one of its biggest backers — the United States — wavers and other countries face criticism for not doing more or acting urgently enough to help Ukraine defeat Russia.
“It leaves Ukraine having to fight a defensive action … with insufficient resources,” said Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a visiting professor in the war studies department at King’s College London.
“I think most people estimate that Ukraine could hold out in 2024. But that leaves a big question about 2025.”
Six months into Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russia, experts say the campaign has largely stalled. CBC’s Briar Stewart breaks down what’s gone wrong and what might happen next.
In recent months, while Ukraine tried to push Russia back in the south and in the east, it also built fortifications along the sprawling front line in an effort to impede a Russian army that has been able to replenish its weaponry by ramping up domestic production and leaning on the likes of Iran and North Korea to help supplement it stocks.
Russia, with a population of more than 140 million, has been able to boost its military ranks, but experts say it still struggles on the battlefield because of a deficient command and control structure.
Five months after Ukraine launched its counteroffensive, the country’s top general described the situation as a stalemate to the publication The Economist, but backtracked on that when speaking to a Ukrainian publication a month later.
Ukraine and Russia are digging in for the next phase of this protracted war.
While there could be few changes to the front line in 2024, the international political landscape could vary greatly if Donald Trump or another Republican is elected president of the United States in November. A $60-billion aid…
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