Nobody knew it in 1992, but 30 years later it’s clear that year’s election began a new era in American politics. The previous 24 years, starting in 1969, had been an age of divided federal government, with Republicans in the White House for five of six terms and Democratic House majorities the entire time. That was preceded by 36 years, going back to 1933, of dominance by Democrats, who held the White House for 28 of those years and the House for 32.
The new era is one of narrow and frequently shifting majorities. Partisans in the 1990s and 2000s saw the promise of a permanent realignment under a succession of young leaders—Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich,
George W. Bush,
Barack Obama—and in 2016
was supposed to doom the GOP. But none of those expectations panned out.
is the fifth consecutive president whose immediate predecessor was from the other party, and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t become the fifth incumbent in a row to see his party lose its House majority in a midterm election. If Republicans take the Senate, it will be the seventh time in 30 years that chamber’s majority has flipped.
The brightest of those false dawns was surely the one that shined on Democrats as Mr. Bush’s presidency waned. In the 2006 midterms they administered what he called a “thumping.” Two years later they expanded their congressional majorities as Mr. Obama won election with nearly 53% of the nationwide popular vote, still the largest majority in any presidential election since 1988.
Ruy Teixeira
saw that victory coming. In August 2002 he and
John Judis
argued in “The Emerging Democratic Majority” that a variety of trends were converging in their party’s favor. Mr. Clinton had led a move to the center that broadened the Democrats’ appeal. Educated professionals, traditionally a Republican constituency, were becoming more liberal on social issues and voting accordingly. Racial and ethnic minorities, most notably Hispanics, already favored the Democrats and were growing rapidly as a share of the electorate.
All these premises were true, and the conclusion was plausible, maybe even compelling. Messrs. Teixeira and Judis expected the GOP to do well in the wartime midterms of 2002, as it did, but the book…
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