China’s population has fallen after decades of sky-high growth. This major shift in the world’s most populous country would be a big deal by itself, but China’s hardly alone in its declining numbers: despite the momentous occasion of the global population surpassing eight billion late last year, the United Nations predicts dozens of countries will have shrinking populations by 2050. This is good news. Considering no other large animal’s population has grown as much, as quickly or as devastatingly for other species as ours, we should all be celebrating population decline.
Declining populations will ease the pressure eight billion people put on the planet. As the population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity, I’ve seen the devastating effects of our ever-expanding footprint on global ecosystems. But if you listen to economists (and Elon Musk), you might believe falling birthrates mean the sky is falling as fewer babies means fewer workers and consumers driving economic growth.
But there’s more to the story than dollars. Where our current model of endless growth and short-term profits sacrifices vulnerable people and the planet’s future, population decline could help create a future with more opportunity and a healthy, biologically rich world. We’re at a crossroads—and we decide what happens next. We can maintain the economic status quo and continue to pursue infinite growth on a finite planet. Or we can heed the warning signs of a planet pushed to its limits, put the brakes on environmental catastrophe, and choose a different way to define prosperity that’s grounded in equity and a thriving natural world.
Every person on the planet needs food, water, energy and a place to call home. And if we want to increase wealth equity and quality of life—as we should—the demands per person will increase, even with the best-case scenario for sustainable development.
For example, as China grew in population and wealth, so did its demands on the planet. China’s per capita environmental footprint is less than half of the U.S., but the country’s total environmental footprint is twice as large, with the nation responsible for one quarter of imported deforestation and one third of global greenhouse emissions. Reducing consumption in high-income countries is necessary, but insufficient on its own if global population continues to rise.
As the human population has doubled over the past 50 years, wildlife…
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