The next primary is already brewing

CHICAGO — One of the more fascinating “what ifs” that someone presented to me this week is this: What if former President Donald Trump had said no to President Joe Biden’s early debate proposal?

As someone who has gone down “what if” rabbit holes for years, I was mad at myself for not having thought of this alternative history scenario yet.

To be more specific: Will Trump’s decision to accept Biden’s terms for an early debate go down in political history as the biggest campaign blunder of the last 20 years? We won’t know the answer to that question until November. But let’s play this out a bit.

One thing is for sure — had Trump not accepted the early debate proposal and instead insisted on doing debates in a more traditional post-convention timeline, then it’s unlikely this convention would be nominating Vice President Kamala Harris. Instead, this would most likely have been a Biden convention.

And what would it have looked like with Joe Biden as the nominee? Many of the speakers might have been the same, sans one high-profile potential no-show (Michelle Obama). Her reasons would have been personal, not political, but it would have been a notable absence.

But the convention itself most likely would have felt more like a heavy lift for Democrats, as the Biden team would have gone to great pains to try to show his vigor, manufacture enthusiasm and do everything it could to find anecdotes that support the idea that he’s younger than he appears.

It might have been a painful watch if it came across as too ham-handed. More likely, that convention would have been even more about the threat of Trump than what we’ve already heard. Certainly, the tone would have been a lot different, with Trump most likely being painted as a dark and menacing threat compared to the Harris team’s decision to paint him as an aging Vegas act who, if left to his own devices, could cause a lot of damage.

The issue of democracy most likely would have shared the stage with the issue of reproductive rights as dual dominant message tracks. There wouldn’t have been a lot of hope or joy chatter. And the only “future” talk would have come from others.

But there would have been two other aspects to this convention that would have gotten a lot more attention — and perhaps would have undermined Biden’s ability to lead his party. First: A lot more Democratic candidates in tough re-election fights would have been skipping Chicago. A handful did that anyway,…