National Hurricane Center tracking new disturbance in Atlantic. Is quiet period over?

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a new disturbance in the central Atlantic, according to the latest advisory.

The Pacific continues to be busy — with the National Hurricane Center currently tracking two tropical storms and one hurricane.

In the Atlantic, August has been unusually quiet, but meteorologists have warned residents to not let their guard down when it comes to storms in the Atlantic basin.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location

AccuWeather forecasters are predicting “a major shift in the weather pattern will soon blow the doors wide open for a frenzy of tropical activity to unfold.”

“I think things could get very active potentially very quickly here as soon as that dry air goes away,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

“We could see a parade of storms. This dramatic increase in activity will start at the end of August and persist throughout September,” AccuWeather said. Labor Day 2024 is on Sept. 2.

Between six and 10 tropical systems are predicted for September, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. That’s similar to the pace of the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season which had 10 September storms. The same year saw a record 30 named storms in the season.

Is Florida at risk for tropical cyclones in September? Who should be concerned?

Florida and the Carolinas are at an elevated risk of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane, AccuWeather said. But they aren’t the only states that should monitor the tropics closely.

“I’m still very concerned about the Texas coast,” DaSilva said.

In its August forecast update, Colorado State University predicted the probabilities of at least one major hurricane making landfall in Florida on the U.S. as:

• Entire continental U.S. coastline: 56%

• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key): 30%

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key) westward to Brownsville: 38%

In its two-week forecast for Aug. 20 through Sept. 2, Colorado State University is predicting normal hurricane activity, but added “environmental conditions look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity toward the end of August.”

“There is a potential for tropical cyclone formation in the eastern/central Atlantic as well as the Caribbean in 8-14 days. Some of these ensemble members are aggressive with intensification, which makes sense given the low shear that is forecast in…