“The first issue is personnel numbers, the second is training, and the third is the commanders’ skills.” What’s really happening on the Pokrovsk front?

This is a long article, so I’ll keep the introduction brief.

This is the story of how within six months, the Russian army has advanced 30 km from Avdiivka towards one of the largest and most strategic cities in Donetsk Oblast, one that until recently was far removed from the war: Pokrovsk.

We’ll ask whether this advance could have been prevented and what role Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has played.

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The names and positions of most of the sources cited in this article have been omitted at their request. Only a handful are rank-and-file soldiers; the majority are officers, battalion commanders, and deputy commanders.

This article is written with respect and gratitude towards every soldier, and especially every infantryman and woman, who defended the Pokrovsk front, and in the hope that the mistakes made there will never be repeated.

The Pokrovsk front: a timeline

The Pokrovsk front didn’t just crumble overnight. Since 15 February 2024, when they withdrew from Avdiivka, Ukraine’s defence forces have been retreating towards Pokrovsk – sometimes faster, sometimes slower – almost every week.

The first difficulties arose when the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, which had been holding the line in the vicinity of Orlivka and Semenivka (not far from Avdiivka), was replaced by the 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade. The rotation of military units is one of the most vulnerable defence areas in general, and for the Ukrainian army in particular, and the Russians took advantage of that.

Vitalii, a crew member who operates a large attack drone, tells Ukrainska Pravda that he was deployed in the area in March, and that the Russian attacks started even before the 68th Brigade could take up its positions.

“We met guys from the 68th who had only just taken up their positions and were forced to retreat immediately because of the FPV drone attacks. When a brigade leaves, they take all the electronic warfare equipment with them. This is typical on this front: they [the Russians] advance the most during rotations. The occupiers take advantage of those times.”

“The night we replaced the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade in Semenivka, the enemy attempted to carry out an assault operation. The meat-grinder attacks haven’t stopped since then,” an Ukrainska Pravda source in the 68th Brigade confirms.

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Throughout March and some of April, Russian forces gradually advanced west towards…