The most likely scenario in polling analyst Nate Silver‘s presidential model is that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, wins all seven swing states in November’s election.
Silver—a leading polling analyst and founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which he is no longer affiliated with—has come out with his own presidential model for the 2024 election and wrote in his Substack blog on Sunday that the model’s most frequent combination involving the seven swings states is a sweep for Harris.
Since the president is decided via the Electoral College system, either Harris or Trump will have to get at least 270 votes, which are spread out by state according to the number of representatives and senators it has, to win the White House.
The path to victory in the Electoral College system is through swing states, which are states where the electorate is more mixed in terms of which political party they voted for in the past. The seven swing states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Harris won all seven swing states 15,273 times out of 70,000 simulations of Silver’s model run on Sunday. The next most likely scenario is that Trump wins all seven swing states. The former president won all the swing states 13,912 out of the 70,000 simulations.
Silver said there is roughly a 40 percent chance that either Harris or Trump will take all of the swing states amid this year’s election.
When reached for comment by Newsweek on Sunday afternoon, Trump’s communications director, Steven Cheung, sent a link to Polymarket’s election forecast which has Trump winning the Electoral College 290 to 248, with him taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. In this scenario, Harris just gets North Carolina and Nevada.
Newsweek also reached out to Harris’ campaign via email for comment on Sunday evening.
Rebecca Noble/AFP visa Getty Images
How Are the Candidates Doing…
Click Here to Read the Full Original Article at Newsweek…