Canada’s plan to hit NATO’s defence spending target remains unclear and the current forecast for increasing military spending is based on “erroneous” economic projections, according to the federal fiscal watchdog.
The report from the parliamentary budget officer (PBO), Yves Giroux, on Wednesday comes just a week before the U.S. election, the outcome of which could have security implications for Canada.
Republican candidate Donald Trump, who has often complained about other NATO members who don’t spend the agreed-on two per cent of their GDP on defence, has warned that the United States may not defend allies who are not meeting this target.
He has also said he would “encourage” Russia to attack so-called “delinquent” NATO nations.
The military alliance is founded on the principle of collective defence — that an attack against one member is an attack against all and will yield a joint response.
At this year’s NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged that Canada will reach the alliance’s target of two per cent of the gross domestic product on defence by 2032, but he gave no specifics on how that benchmark will be achieved.
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“The government has not released any figures showing how it plans to meet the 2% target by 2032-33,” the PBO said in its news release.
Canada’s updated defence policy also forecasts spending will rise from 1.37 per cent of GDP currently to 1.76 per cent by 2030.
The PBO said the 1.76 per cent figure is “based on an erroneous GDP forecast” and according to the watchdog’s own analysis, the projected defence spending reaches only 1.58 per cent of GDP by 2029-30.
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