In the wake of his November victory, President-elect Donald Trump has already had a fairly messy rollout of his Cabinet nominees. His first choice for attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, withdrew from consideration, and some of his other picks have their own personal scandals or controversies to overcome in the Senate confirmation process.
Yet despite some less than optimal headlines, the Republican-controlled Senate will likely confirm nearly all of Trump’s Cabinet nominees and picks for other key positions. Republicans hold a 53-to-47 majority in the next Senate, so if the GOP remains relatively unified, most of Trump’s nominees will get across the finish line. And with senators from the two parties now farther apart ideologically than they’ve ever been in modern times, almost all GOP senators will back Trump’s choices — and most Democrats will probably oppose them.
None of this precludes further developments that could lead another nominee to withdraw due to controversy or scandal, or that one nominee could go down to defeat on the Senate floor — something that hasn’t happened since 1989. But considering Trump’s especially dominant sway within his party as well as those broader trends, it’s easy to see how the Senate could confirm even some of his most controversial picks.
Nominees face more opposition, but senators stick with their parties
Cabinet confirmation votes used to be a formality; throughout most of the 20th century, presidents’ Cabinet nominees were typically confirmed unanimously or near-unanimously. But over the past 30 years, the amount of opposition to presidents’ nominees to Cabinet posts and certain positions that have been or are currently considered Cabinet-level* has distinctly increased. President Joe Biden’s nominees had the second-highest number of total votes against them across all confirmation votes in the Senate during his nearly four years in office. This puts him second only to Trump during the president-elect’s first term, when many of his nominees encountered substantial opposition.
Of course, Trump’s turnover-prone first administration had a record number of nominees for Cabinet and Cabinet-level posts, so he also had more opportunities for the Senate to cast votes against his choices. Still, we can see an upward trend beyond Trump, too. The 25 Senate roll call votes for Biden’s nominees was similar to the 23 that former President Barack Obama had during his second term and the 22 that former President George…
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