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Mortgage rates tick higher again as recession fears loom

Mortgage rates tick higher again as recession fears loom

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.54% in the week ending July 21, up from 5.51% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. That is significantly higher than this time last year when it was 2.78%.

Rates have risen sharply since January, hitting a 2022 high of 5.81% in mid-June. But since then, economic concerns have made rates more volatile. Rates dropped the first week in July, notching the biggest one-week dip since 2008.

“The housing market remains sluggish as mortgage rates inch up for a second consecutive week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Consumer concerns about rising rates, inflation and a potential recession are manifesting in softening demand. As a result of these factors, we expect house price appreciation to moderate noticeably.”

Higher rates have put a dent in mortgage demand, as loan applications dropped to the lowest level in 22 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“The weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

The decline in applications aligns with reports earlier this week showing homebuilding activity is slowing due to reduced buyer traffic and rising prices for supplies. In addition, another report found existing home sales, fell for the the fifth straight month as buyers paused their home search.

All eyes on the Fed

The Federal Reserve’s meeting next week is also weighing on mortgage rates. Markets and economists anticipate another 75-basis-point hike to curb inflation. The question is whether a hike that size will be enough, or if the Fed will push for a 100-basis-point increase.

The Federal Reserve does not set the interest rates borrowers pay on mortgages directly. Rates tend to track 10-year US Treasury bonds. But mortgage rates are indirectly impacted by the Fed’s actions on inflation. As investors see or anticipate rate hikes, they often sell government bonds, which sends yields higher and with it, mortgage rates.

As a result, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries moved even deeper into negative territory this week.

“This yield-curve inversion points toward growing investor concern that the Federal Reserve’s rate setting is not likely to tamp down fast-running inflation,” said George Ratiu, Realtor.com’s manager of economic research. “Yield curve inversions have preceded most economic recessions of the past half…

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