Xi Jinping’s Ideological Ambition Darkens China’s Economic Prospects

A major challenge is Mr. Xi’s political agenda. Since he rose to power in 2012, Mr. Xi has put ideological rectitude, national security and Communist Party control at the center of policy. And he has insisted on greater state control over the economy—an approach that many economists say has come at the expense of the dynamic private sector that propelled China’s extraordinary growth.

Private-sector economists, the World Bank and other institutions expect China’s growth to rebound to around 4.5% next year after an estimated 3% or so in 2022, assuming Beijing eventually relaxes its zero-Covid policy. Many economists predict growth will remain weaker than before the pandemic, in part due to a shrinking workforce and rising debt levels.

Much of the recent slowdown in China’s GDP growth traces to the country’s strict policies to contain Covid. Mr. Xi’s insistence on lockdowns for even minor outbreaks has underpinned his view that China’s system of centralized control is better than the West, and has kept reported case numbers down. It has also kept businesses closed and pushed up youth unemployment.

Mr. Xi now looks set to extend his term as the nation’s leader for another five years at a Communist Party congress this week, breaking with recent precedent to step aside after 10. And he shows few signs of changing course on his priorities. In a speech opening the party congress, Mr. Xi defended his zero-Covid policy, saying it has “protected people’s lives and health to the greatest extent possible.”