Earlier this week, noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo for headset, claiming production was being cut to 400,000 or 450,000 units compared to a previous market consensus north of 700,000. This came after a related report from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, who said in his that demand for Vision Pro demos is “way down” while sales in some locations have significantly slowed.
Naturally, this incited a lot of panic and hand-wringing among Apple enthusiasts who feared that the headset that was supposed to change VR forever might not have the staying power they expected. However, before anyone else starts clutching their pearls, I want to let you in on a secret: It doesn’t actually matter how many headsets Apple sells.
First, let’s talk production numbers. Is it 400,000 or 800,000, or something in between? Back in January, the same Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that the company sold between 160,000 and 180,000 units during its , which was up from of around 60,000 to 80,000. But if we go back even further to last July, the cited two people who said Apple only asked its supplier to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024 while other sources put that number closer to 150,000. Now obviously numbers are subject to change over time as Apple responds to feedback and interest from developers and the public. Regardless, trying to predict the exact number of devices to make is extremely tricky, especially for an attention-grabbing and innovative product that has been the subject of rumors dating back to (and even before that, according to some ).
Still, let’s take that 400,000 number and see how far it goes. Without factoring in accessories (some of which are very important, especially if the owner wears glasses), the Vision Pro sells for $3,500. Rough napkin math suggests that Apple is looking at around $1.4 billion in sales. That’s a pretty big number and for a lot of other companies, that would represent a banner year. But this is Apple we’re talking about —it raked in . And that was considered a down year. So we’re talking less than one percent of the company’s total revenue, which is basically a rounding error for Apple’s finances.
That figure looks even less impressive when you consider all the research and development that went into making the Vision Pro. Apple is always cagey when it comes to revealing how much money it invests into various departments. But if we look at another…